Indicator |
Weekly Level / Change |
Implication for S & P 500 |
Implication for Nifty* |
S & P 500 |
3901, 4.74% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Nifty |
17787, 2.27% |
Neutral ** |
Bullish |
China Shanghai Index |
2916, - 1.08% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Gold |
1648, 0.82% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
WTIC Crude |
88.38, - 0.77% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Copper |
3.43, 1.62% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Baltic Dry Index |
1534, - 15.67% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Euro |
0.9965, 1.47% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Dollar/Yen |
147.46, - 0.73% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Dow Transports |
13575, 1.51% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Corporate Bonds (ETF) |
101.90, - 0.90% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
High Yield Bonds (ETF) |
91.44, 1.17% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
US 10-year Bond Yield |
4.01%, 5.42% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
NYSE Summation Index |
-732, 31% |
Bullish |
Neutral |
US Vix |
25.75, - 7.28% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Skew |
112 |
Neutral |
Neutral |
CNN Fear & Greed
Index |
Greed |
Bearish |
Bearish |
20 DMA, S & P 500 |
3719, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
50 DMA, S & P 500 |
3842, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
200 DMA, S & P 500 |
4113, Below |
Bearish |
Neutral |
20 DMA, Nifty |
17288, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
50 DMA, Nifty |
17506, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
200 DMA, Nifty |
16994, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
S & P 500 P/E |
20.29 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
Nifty P/E |
21.15 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
India Vix |
15.92, - 5.35% |
Neutral |
Bullish |
Dollar/Rupee |
82.27, 0.24% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Overall |
S & P 500 |
Nifty |
|
Bullish Indications |
11 |
13 |
|
Bearish Indications |
7 |
6 |
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Observation |
The S
and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are about
to hit resistance. Watch those stops. |
||
On the Horizon |
US –
FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Eurozone – CPI, German Employment
data, UK – BOE rate decision, |
||
*Nifty |
India’s Benchmark Stock
Market Index |
||
Raw Data |
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com,
multpl.com, NSE |
||
**Neutral |
Changes less than 0.5%
are considered neutral |
The S and P
and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the
week. We have been selling off from resistance near the 200
DMA on the S & P and the sell-off is likely to continue with
bounces being sold into. Finally, we got a sustainable bounce that
crossed the 50 DMA of the S and P and may top at the 200 DMA near 4100. The market
is tracking closely the 2008 move down in the S and P, implying a panic low
right ahead in the upcoming months.
The past week
saw a further rebound in global markets, following a cool-off in interest
rates. Transports had a big move up. The Baltic dry index continues to crater.
The dollar fell. Commodities were mixed. Valuations are expensive, market
breadth is improving, and so is the sentiment.
The ongoing
currency crisis should push risky assets to new lows
across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent
inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan, Euro, government bonds, and
commodities are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style
recession trade has begun, with a decline in risk assets
across the board. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels).
The S&P 500 is
below the 200 DMA and recently failed at this important mark, after spending a
very long time above it, and its 200 DMA is declining. Monthly
MACDs on most global markets are still negative. This
spells trouble and opens up significant downside risk ahead. We have got
bounces without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in
and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We
may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets are
breaking to the downside across the board. Downward earnings revisions are
likely soon.
The Fed is aggressively
tightening into a recession. Tail risk has moderated.
Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market
has corrected significantly and more is left on the downside. The
Dollar, commodities, and, bond yields are continuing to flash major
warning signs.
The epic
correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in
the recent melt-up in January, suggesting a major top is in.
The moment of reckoning is here. Technicals are tracking
fundamentals and have recently turned bearish. With extremely high valuations,
a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.
We rallied 46%
right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we have rallied
over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 2-year period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3300 area
is emerging on the S and P, and 15000 should
arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The Nifty
which has been out-performing will likely catch up with other assets on the
downside soon.
The trend has
changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting a reality check and
getting smashed by rising rates and a strong dollar.
Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. Yield curves are inverting yet again reflecting a
major upcoming recession.
The critical
levels to watch for the week are 3915 (up) and 3890 (down) on
the S & P 500 and 17850 (up) and 17700 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the
above markets. High beta / P/E will get torched yet
again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is
increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade
despite the recent selloff. You can check out last week’s
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
No comments:
Post a Comment