About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 2 February 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 03

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3226, -2.12%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
11662, -4.79%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2977, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1588, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
51.62, -1.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.51, -4.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
487, -12.57%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1093, 0.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
108.39, -0.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10567, -4.46%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond)
109.04, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.51%, -7.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
718, -24.57%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
18.84, 29.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
136
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3279, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
3211, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3012, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
12176, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
12132, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11655, Above
Neutral
Bullish
S & P 500 P/E
24.27
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
25.75
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.84, 8.19%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
71.56, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
4
Bearish Indications
10
12
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – Employment data, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals february 03


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Long term, QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in crude is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent virus epidemic in China is likely to usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3240 (up) and 3215 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



No comments:

Post a Comment

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.