Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 04

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2804, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10864, 0.67%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2994, 6.77%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1299, -2.52%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	55.80, -2.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.93, -0.66%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	664, 4.73%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1406, 0.76%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	111.95, 1.16%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10462, -1.24%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.59, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.76%, 3.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	1280, 2.22%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.57, 0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Skew	127	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2757, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2643, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2750, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10832, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10816, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10863, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	16.27, 5.34%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	71.00 -0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	8
Bearish Indications	5	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied slightly last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, Japan – GDP, Euro Zone – ECB rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are within 2% of a major secondary top. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has finally exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2810 (up) and 2790 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10950 (up) and 10800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.