Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 01

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2834, 1.20%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11624, 1.46%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3091, -0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1297, -1.17%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	60.20, 1.96%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.93, 3.39%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	689, -0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
Euro	1.1218, -0.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.86, 0.69%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10408, 3.54%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.97, 0.73%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.41%, -1.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	875, -5.34%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	13.71, -16.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	121	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2804, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2756, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2756, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11291, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11013, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10926, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	17.19, 5.59%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.40 0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	12
Bearish Indications	3	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, Euro Zone –CPI, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are making a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2845 (up) and 2820 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11700 (up) and 11500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.