Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge as the euro plunges in response to the crisis in Italy, which has sent Italian bond yields skyrocketing. A flight to quality in US bonds as a risk off trade emerges. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today: 

Midweek Market Insight

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 28

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2721, 0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10605, 0.08%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3141, -1.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1304, 0.96%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	67.88, -4.89%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.08, 0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1109, -15.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1655, -1.09%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	109.53, -1.12%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10900, 1.58%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.70, 0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.93%, -4.43%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	491, 17.70%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.22, -1.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	141	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2698, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2674, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2634, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10669, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10475, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10335, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.65, -10.64%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	67.71, -0.40%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	6
Bearish Indications	6	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	New Zealand – Orr speech, China – PMI’s, UK- PMI, Euro – German employment data, CPI, German PMI, U.S – Consumer confidence, GDP, Crude oil inventories, employment data, ISM PMI, Home sales, Canada – BOC rate decision, GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2730 (up) and 2710 (down) on the S & P and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge and emerging market currencies like the Lira and the PESO are weakening. Italian credit spreads continue to widen and a broad risk off trade is emerging. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today: 

Midweek Market Insight

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 21

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2713, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10596, -1.94%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3193, 0.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1291, -2.23%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	71.37, 0.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.06, -1.54%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1305, -10.19%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1783, -1.37%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.77, 1.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10731, 0.16%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.66, -0.42%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.07%, 3.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	417, 33.11%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.42, 6.09%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	133	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2680, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2678, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2628, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10686, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10453, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10324, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	14.15, 1.23%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	67.98, 0.88%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	5
Bearish Indications	7	11
Outlook	Neutral	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK- CPI, Retail sales, GDP, Euro – German GDP, German PMI, German IFO business climate index, ECB meeting minutes, U.S – Home sales, Crude oil inventories, Powell Speech, FOMC meeting minutes, Durable goods
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2725 (up) and 2700 (down) on the S & P and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.