Here
is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an
aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX,
Commodity markets and the Economy:
About
Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Time Series Analysis with GRETL
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Wednesday, 31 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday, 30 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here
is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an
aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX,
Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday, 29 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday, 28 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 29
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2416, 1.83%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
9595, 1.77%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3110, 0.63%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1268, 1.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
49.80, -1.72%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.55, -0.60%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
912, -4.60%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.118, -0.21%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
111.33, 0.06%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
9176, 3.35%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
37.33, 0.40%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.25%, 0.22%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
543, 16.27%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
9.81, -18.52%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
125
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2394, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2373, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2263, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9403, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9263, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
8717, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
10.86, -3.89%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.56, 0.08%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
9
|
10
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
3
|
3
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is at new highs. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
China
– PMI, Japan – Capital spending, New Zealand – Wheeler speech, Euro Zone – German
CPI, Employment data, Euro zone CPI, ECB rate decision, Draghi speech,
U.S
– ISM, Personal consumption expenditure, Consumer confidence, Employment data,
Canada – GDP, PMI, Mexico – Inflation report
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the
upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and
commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The
critical levels to watch are 2425 (up) and 2400 (down) on the S & P and 9650
(up) and 9550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels
could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday, 25 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday, 24 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post
is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX,
Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday, 22 May 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday, 21 May 2017
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 22
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2382, -0.38%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
9428, 0.29%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3091, 0.23%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1254, 2.11%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
50.67, 5.92%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.58, 2.28%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
956, -5.72%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.121, 2.57%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
111.26, -1.84%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
8879, -1.35%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
37.18, 0.24%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.25%, -3.85%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
467, -14.26%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
12.04, 15.77%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
131
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2388, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2370, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2257, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9356, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9213, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
8697, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
11.30, 6.35%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.50, 0.54%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
7
|
8
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
6
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up slightly last week. Indicators mildly
bullish.
The
market is repeatedly failing at resistance. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
Japan
– Kuroda speeches, CPI, UK – GDP, U.S – FOMC minutes, Trade balance, Durable
goods, GDP, Canada – Rate decision, Euro Zone - Draghi speech
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are mildly bullish for
the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and
commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The
critical levels to watch are 2390 (up) and 2370 (down) on the S & P and 9500
(up) and 9350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels
could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 219K last week - Read more on https://www.fxstreet.com20 minutes ago
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EUR/USD surges as PMI boosts EUR, US Dollar under pressure from tariffs - EUR/USD surges on US tariffs and positive Eurozone PMI. Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs weaken the Dollar, pushing EUR/USD to multi-month highs. Market ey...4 hours ago
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Event Guide: Canada’s Employment Report (March 2025) - The Canadian economy has been seeing green shoots these days, convincing its central bank to tone down its dovish bias. But will the upcoming jobs report...9 hours ago
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Upward Revision to Q2 GDP Aids the US Dollar’s Feeble Recovery - The second estimate of US GDP growth in Q2 saw an upward revision from 2.8% to 3%. However, US resilience has come under pressure, particularly in the labo...7 months ago
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Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because…. - Don’t be fooled by the pullback in the U.S. dollar today because the greenback could still strengthen further before the end of the year. Nearly all of the...6 years ago
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - EUR/USD's decline attempt was contained at 1.0494, above 1.0493 support and rebounded. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of ...8 years ago
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Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond - In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of...13 years ago
Economic Calendar
India Market Insight
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Top 100 Trading Blogs: FeedSpot Honors Bramesh’s Technical Analysis - Bramesh’s Technical Analysis: A Beacon in the Top 100 Trading Blogs of FeedSpot :- https://bloggers.feedspot.com/trading_blogs/ The digital landscape of ...2 hours ago
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Reduce Persistent Systems; target of Rs 3700: Emkay Global Financial - [image: Reduce Persistent Systems; target of Rs 3700: Emkay Global Financial] Emkay Global Financial recommended reduce rating on Persistent Systems with a...11 months ago
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Rupee falls 29 paise to close at 82.68 against US dollar - During the day, the rupee touched a high of 82.45 and a low of 82.68 against the greenback. On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.39 against the dollar.1 year ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020 - Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions) 01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount (Rs. Cror...5 years ago
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Gold Top down analysis. - - Updating blog after a long Gap. Longest in the last 8 years. May not be able to update regularly for 2 more months to come. - Gold bulls co...6 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank - We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48% Kerala...6 years ago
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Bank Nifty does Price Time Squaring and gave big move - As discussed in Last Analysis Bank Nifty gave the big move as we were expecting near turn date and also made low of 24706 near our target of 24700 and bo...7 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...7 years ago
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Market outlook for 28/10/2016 - *Nifty closed flat at 8615.25* while Future closed at 8655.25, premium of 40.00 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 31.00 points (0.16%) at 19514.60* while Futur...8 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 27-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat and went down to touch the lows at 8550, but support level buying saw the index close flat at 8615.25. The broader market w...8 years ago
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NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22-8-16 - *Nifty (8667)* we said ‘it is quite possible that the Nifty may open again in the green but I would be cautious in the upper regions’ the Nifty opened in ...8 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.