Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2762, -3.85%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
10761, -2.79%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3462, -2.70%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1337, -1.09%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
65.45, -1.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
3.19, -0.36%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1114, -8.46%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.2458, 0.25%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
110.17, 1.41%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10687, -3.94%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.27, -1.33%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.85%, 7.21%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
384, -44.58%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
17.31, 56.23%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
127
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2802, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2715, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2532, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10846, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10546, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10013, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
15.25, -12.89%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.23, 0.93%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
3
|
4
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
11
|
12
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets are making important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
|
|
On
the Horizon
|
Australia
– Retail sales, RBA rate decision, New
Zealand – Employment data, RBNZ rate decision, China – PMI, UK – PMI
data, BOE rate decision, Manufacturing production, U.S – ISM data, Oil inventories, Canada – PMI, Employment data, India
– Rate decision, Russia - Rate
decision
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Signals are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully and
sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and surging
bond yields are flashing some warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. The critical levels to watch are 2775 (up) and 2750(down) on the S
& P and 10850 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2873, 2.23%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
11070, 1.71%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3558, 2.01%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1352, 1.43%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
66.14, 4.47%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
3.20, 0.36%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1217, 6.85%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.2427, 1.67%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
108.64, -1.97%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
11126, -1.59%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.92, 0.27%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.66%, 0.95%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
692, 1.53%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
11.08, -1.69%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
118
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2772, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2691, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2521, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10714, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10475, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
9968, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
17.51, 25.21%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
63.64, -0.33%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
11
|
11
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
3
|
4
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have gone parabolic. Time to watch those stops.
|
|
|
On
the Horizon
|
Australia
– CPI, China – PMI, Euro Zone – CPI, German employment
data, UK – Carney speech, PMI, U.S – Consumer confidence, Oil
inventories, Home sales, FOMC rate decision, Employment data, PMI, Canada – GDP, India – Union Budget
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and surging
bond yields are flashing some warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. The critical levels to watch are 2885 (up) and 2860(down) on the S
& P and 11150 (up) and 11000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.