Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed.
About
Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
Check out this chart on the Nifty from StockCharts.com. A massive M top has completed on the Nifty that targets 6000 long term. This incidentally coincides with a trailing P/E of over 24 which is suggestive of over valuation. Note the recent exhaustion candle much like in March 2015 from which the market fell 25%.
Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx.
They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other
key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day.
Today's commentary looks at important central bank meetings ahead namely the BOJ and the FOMC:
The
S and P 500 bounced and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets
are breaking down from the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to
tighten those stops.
On
the Horizon
Japan
– Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision, Canada – CPI,
US
– FOMC rate decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
The S and
P 500 rebounded slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for
the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences
for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big
breakdown is likely underway. The
markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. The critical levels to
watch are 2150 (up) and 2130 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8700
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. You can also check out support
and resistance levels of the S
and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love
your thoughts and feedback.
Thursday links: central bank independence
-
Markets
- Why you shouldn't fear all-time market highs. (carsongroup.com)
- Calling a bubble is nearly impossible. (awealthofcommonsense.com)
Fina...
Revisiting Reverse Repos
-
[image: reverse repurchase agreements and the sp500]
When the Fed first started doing "Quantitative Easing (QE)" in 2009, it was
a new concept. Nobody h...
No New Bulls in the S&P 500?
-
While we aren’t yet seeing gangbuster performance by the entire small-cap
universe, we are seeing signs that investors are interested in certain
small ca...
The (Muted) Impact of Tariffs on Inflation
-
I wanted to drop a quick note regarding some recent CPI data and
tariffs. There is a fundamental misunderstanding (aka political spin) about
the impa...
Daily Market Brief
-
Subscriber content. To subscribe to the Daily Market Brief please visit
Market Services on NorthmanTrader.com. The Daily Market Brief is an
in-depth market...
Debt Rattle July 17 2025
-
Pablo Picasso Portrait of Dora Maar 1943 • Trump Arms Ukraine. Russia
Doesn’t Care (Kornev) • Trump’s Tariff Revenues Reach Record Highs
(Salgado) • Fe...
While the World Was Distracted by Epstein
-
While the world was distracted by the Epstein debacle, legislators
introduced the GENUIS Act that would permit the US government to regulate
stablecoins. T...
Weekend Report – July 4th-6th
-
Weekly report covering Gold, Equities, Crude, Dollar. A look at trade
opportunities and covering the model portfolio.
The post Weekend Report – July 4th-...
Weekend Update - Trendline rejection (3/8/24)
-
SPX was rejected by the blue trendline Friday. The trendline had been
sucessfully tested four times and held since November, until now. SPX has
unable ...
2008 analogue
-
The 2008 analogue tape looks very interesting from where we stand.
Let's anchor it to the next two Fed meetings -- since that's all that
matters -- and i...
Back to trade with Bar Replay
-
It is often said that one should not be sad about the past, but sometimes
it can be nice to return to it. Who would like to buy Tesla for $1 and
experience...
Growth Companies – Getting What You Want
-
What do the growth companies in your field have in common? How are they
doing so well and what can you learn from them? Growth companies usually
make a pro...
Blog Post Title
-
What goes into a blog post? Helpful, industry-specific content that: 1)
gives readers a useful takeaway, and 2) shows you’re an industry expert.
Use your c...
Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 10th
-
The market has continued its rally to higher highs and it doesn't seem like
it wants to stop. We now have a new ATH at 4371 which are NASDAQ levels
s...
Fully Automated Trend Trading w/ Stocks Or Options
-
There’s a lot of research to support the usage of trend indicators as
simple risk reduction elements that can be layered onto an existing
strategy. Howev...
2020 Top Investment Picks – Q3 Update
-
At the beginning of the year, I put together a list of Top Investment Picks
for 2020 from the investment community and track them on this website. This
is ...
The last of 12326
-
February 22nd 2012.....
First post...
https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/2012/02/can-anyone-fly-plane.html
--
This post will be the last under the o...
Weekend Report
-
Weekend Report Provided by the OEW Group December 21, 2019 Last Monday
started with a sharp rally on positive trade news. After closing at 3169
the previou...
Financial Markets Will Move To Asia
-
Chicago, they invented the Soybean futures contracts. But now, China uses
more soybeans than ... *READ THE REST OF THE ARTICLE ON THE NEW WEBSITE:
JIM ROGE...
Meet Hert Capital and How He Uses Stocktwits
-
On Stocktwits, HertCapital has been known for quite some time. But for
those reading who haven’t had a chance to follow him, we asked him a few
questions...
Nightly Algo Report – December 6, 2018
-
To access this post, you must purchase Premium Plan or Premium Plan -
Annual.
The post Nightly Algo Report – December 6, 2018 appeared first on
Elliottwa...
Weekly Videos
-
This week’s video will be posted on the new home for Short Takes. If all
goes well, it will appear sometime between 6:00 and 8:00 pm ET.
Gold’s silent comeback and the middle class rebound
-
The middle class has been stuck in a rut – psychologically if not
economically – for years, and they’re not afraid to admit it. Last year’s
upset victory...
Kafka For The Twenty First Century
-
I've been spending a slightly frustrating day trying to update my payment
details at google. To log in to my admin console I need to log in using my
G Sui...
Gold Unleashed by Fed
-
Gold's next major upleg was likely unleashed by a very-dovish FOMC this
week, which now has its hands tied on hiking rates or being hawkish due to
the US e...
From false moves…
-
One of my favorite sayings came from my trader friend Brian Shannon, who
said from false moves come fast moves. I always pay attention to […]
The post Fr...
Why Mitt Romney Will Be The Next President
-
News Flash: Despite how it may look, what with Occupy Wall Street protests
and Tea Party rallies, the country’s populous is not as polarized as it
might se...
August 24th Blogger Sentiment Poll
-
There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll. Blogger Sentiment Poll
Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot
Wave L...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
-
EUR/USD's decline attempt was contained at 1.0494, above 1.0493 support and
rebounded. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break
of ...
Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond
-
In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a
prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the
form of...
JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020
-
Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions)
01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount
(Rs. Cror...
Gold Top down analysis.
-
- Updating blog after a long Gap. Longest in the last 8 years. May not
be able to update regularly for 2 more months to come.
- Gold bulls co...
Vist Note on Federal Bank
-
We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the
old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48%
Kerala...
Market outlook for 28/10/2016
-
*Nifty closed flat at 8615.25* while Future closed at 8655.25, premium of
40.00 points.
*Bank Nifty closed up 31.00 points (0.16%) at 19514.60* while Futur...
Option Open Interest for 27-10-2016
-
Inference The index opened flat and went down to touch the lows at 8550,
but support level buying saw the index close flat at 8615.25. The broader
market w...
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22-8-16
-
*Nifty (8667)* we said ‘it is quite possible that the Nifty may open again
in the green but I would be cautious in the upper regions’ the Nifty opened
in ...
ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing
-
ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings,
Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are
manufactur...
Cash - 40% Bonds - 20% Fixed deposit - 20% Gold - 5% Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds) Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.