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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

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Wednesday 18 January 2023

Mid-Week Market Update from Mooranalytics.com

 S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basisOn 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLDOn a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning.  These are OFF HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 219.50.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 161.25 of strength.  We are in a lower/medium-time frame bull structure.   Today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion.   

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5.  The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 by $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $290.6 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward of $80 minimum.  We have attained $252.3 so far.  The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $162.4 of strength.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $71.8.  I warned we took out exhaustion at $1,907.1-23.3, opening up the upside to higher trade—we traded $8.5 higher before rolling over.  Decent trade below $1,886.1 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure.   

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The rollover on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $5,450 of strength.  The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade—we have seen $4,480. The trade above $17,935 has brought in $3,790 of strength.  Trade below $20,690-80 will warn of pressure, but will also put this down in the gap.

Crude Oil (WTI) (H)

 On a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are OFF HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are ON HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.86.  We held exhaustion at $72.93 with a $72.74 low, which I said had the potential to start a multi-week bull structure, and bounced $9.71.  The trade above $79.07 projects this upward $8.10 minimum, $25.50 (+) maximum; but if we break back below decently, look for decent pressure—this will come in at $78.46 today.  The trade above $80.00 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) also projects this higher; but if we fail back below decently, look for decent pressure.  This will come in at $79.91 (-.5 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:00am).

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basisThe failure back below 8440 brought in 4920 tics of pressure (in previous contracts).  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5102-247, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basisThe trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength—we only saw initial strength before rolling over and traveling down above it, but this also warned the downside may wane temporarily, drift sideways, and then see higher trade (which is what we are seeing).  We are likely entering into a bullish correction/trend on a lower timeframe before (if) resuming lower trade.  We came just shy of exhaustion below at 3356 with a 3384 low, which I did not suggest buying against, as I had a fade suggestion around 3422 just above.  Decent trade above 3707 (-2.6 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent strength; but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure. 

 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast, or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor

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