About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Monday, 20 May 2019

Chinese Yuan Warning Major Correction Ahead?

The Chinese Yuan is well correlated to risk assets. A sudden depreciation in the Yuan has often lead to major sell offs in risk assets. With the Yuan depreciating appreciably in the last few weeks a major sell off in risk assets maybe just around the corner:

1 comment:

wealthbuildup24 May 2019 at 03:58
I have read your blog, It is very useful ,Thank you very much.
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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Wednesday, Aug 20
02:00	UK	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3.8%	3.7%
02:00	UK	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3.8%	3.7%
02:00	UK	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%
02:00	UK	Retail Price Index (YoY)	4.8%	4.5%
02:00	UK	Retail Price Index (MoM)	0.4%	0.1%
04:30	UK	DCLG House Price Index (YoY)
07:00	US	MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30	CA	New Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.1%
08:30	CA	New Housing Price Index (YoY)
10:30	US	EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change		-0.800M

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.