Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 04

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2642, 1.53%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10122, -2.58%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3318, -1.08%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1282, -0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	58.36, -1.00%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.09, -2.41%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1578, 9.20%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1896, -0.23%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	112.13, 0.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10187, 5.89%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.75, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.36%, 0.94%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	487, 25.11%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	11.43, 18.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2597, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2568, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2454, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10298, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10183, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	9680, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	14.80, 9.49%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.54, -0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	5
Bearish Indications	5	9
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty broke down last week. Indicators are mixed. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Retail sales, Rate decision, GDP, Japan – GDP, UK – PMI’s, Manufacturing production, U.S –Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment data, Canada – PMI, Rate decision, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 made a new high and the Nifty broke down last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. It is looking rather ominous for the Indian market given the under-performance. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630 (down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.