About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 1 October 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 2

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2519, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9789, -1.76%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3349, -0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1285, -0.98%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
51.67, 1.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.95, 0.36%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1391, -5.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1813, -1.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
112.54, 0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9914, 2.16%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.32, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.33%, 2.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
795, 17.96%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.51, -0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
138
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2493, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2473, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2389, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9978, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9946, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
9277, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.48, -2.54%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.30, 0.67%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8

6
Bearish Indications
4
8
Outlook
Bullish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty fell again last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Tankan manufacturers Index, Australia – Rate decision, Retail sales, UK – PMI’s, Euro – German PMI, ECB minutes, U.S – ISM data, Crude oil inventory data, Employment data, Canada – Employment data, PMI,
India – RBI rate decision  
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals october 02


The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty continued to underperform last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2530 (up) and 2510 (down) on the S & P and 9900 (up) and 9700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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