About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 10 June 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 12

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2432, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9668, 0.15%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3158, 1.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1271, -0.69%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
45.83, -3.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.65, 2.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
849, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1200, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.28, -0.12%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9328, -0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
37.13, -0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.20%, 1.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
598, 2.59%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.70, 9.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2409, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2386, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2274, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9552, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9371, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8768, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.86, 0.50%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.37, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

6
Bearish Indications
5
6
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market reversed at new highs. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – Industrial production, Japan – Rate decision, Australia – Employment data, New Zealand - GDP, Euro Zone – German ZEW Sentiment, CPI, Switzerland – Rate decision, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Rate decision, Russia – Rate decision,
U.S – PPI, CPI, Retail sales, FOMC rate decision, Oil inventories
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals june 12



The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. Friday’s reversal suggests this could be imminent. The critical levels to watch are 2440 (up) and 2420 (down) on the S & P and 9750 (up) and 9550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.