About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

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Sunday, 7 February 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 8

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1880, -3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7489, -0.98%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2764, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1174, 4.98%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
31.00, -8.12%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.09, 1.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
297, -6.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.121, 3.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
116.89, -3.42%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
6943, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
32.30, -2.23%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.85%, -4.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-560, 22.80%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
23.38, 15.74%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1920, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1991, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2041, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7497, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7668, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8058, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.11, 5.08%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.88, 0.0%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

7

6
Bearish Indications
9
10
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty fell last week on what looks like another failed QE from Japan. Indicators are bearish. Looking for a retest of the prior lows.
On the Horizon
China - Loan data, Euro zone – German Italian & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail sales, U. Michigan confidence data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market and Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are in crash mode and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows. The critical levels to watch are 1900 (up) and 1860 (down) on the S & P and 7500 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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