About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Thursday, 26 March 2015

Nifty Gold Uptrend in Question

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.
The Nifty has been in a continuous uptrend against gold (in dollars). Gold has been falling on deflationary fears. As the deflationary theme plays out and eventually spreads to risky assets like stocks a catch up to the downside is likely for stock market indices like the Nifty. A pull back thus seems to appear on the charts with Nifty under performance vis a vis gold in a deflationary context.Chart courtesy StockCharts.com.



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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.