Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 14

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500		Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	4464, -0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	19428, -0.45%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3189, -3.01%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1946, -1.54%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	83.04, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	3.72, -3.84%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	280, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1129, -0.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0946, -0.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	144.96, 2.26%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	16210, -0.67%	Bearish	Bearish
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	105.05, -0.80%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	91.75, 0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.16%, 2.72%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	595, -22%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	14.84, -13.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	135	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S & P 500	4530, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	4438, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	4116, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	19657, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	19240, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	18280, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	25.48	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.63	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	11.52, 8.99%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	83.03, 0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	4
Bearish Indications	12	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are correcting. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, UK – CPI, Japan – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P 500 and the Nifty were little changed last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. We are correcting from recent highs on the S&P 500, as we transition from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The Nifty is also correcting from its life highs.

The past week saw US equity markets relatively unchanged. Most emerging markets fell, as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic dry index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities were unchanged. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is now bullish. Fear is abating, even as a possible reality check from a FED Pivot looms.

The recent currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is encountering resistance near its recent highs. We have got bounces from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board, as downward earnings revisions are underway.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has rebounded after correcting significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs.

The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in January 2022, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the COVID-19 lows. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3800 area is emerging on the S&P 500, and 17000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and most risky assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on challenging macros.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 4475 (up) and 4450 (down) on the S&P 500 and 19500 (up) and 19350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own over the next decade, though the 2000 level could act as short-term resistance. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dotcom bust in 2000, just imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.