About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Monday, 20 June 2022

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 20

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

3675, - 5.79%

Bearish

Bearish

Nifty

15294, - 5.61%

Neutral **

Bearish

China Shanghai Index

3317, 0.97%

Bullish

Bullish

Gold

1842, - 1.79%

Bearish

Bearish

WTIC Crude

107.99, - 10.51%

Bearish

Bearish

Copper

4.01, - 6.60%

Bearish

Bearish

Baltic Dry Index

2578, 11.12%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.0500, - 0.14%

Neutral

Neutral

Dollar/Yen

134.96, 0.40%

Neutral

Neutral

Dow Transports

12869, - 3.74%

Bearish

Bearish

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

109.43, - 0.99%

Bearish

Bearish

High Yield Bonds (ETF)

91.64, - 2.02%

Bearish

Bearish

US 10-year Bond Yield

3.23%, 1.79%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

-538, - 145%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

31.13, 12.18%

Bearish

Bearish

Skew

121

Neutral

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed

Extreme Fear

Bullish

Bullish

20 DMA, S & P 500

3973, Below

Bearish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

4117, Below

Bearish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4421, Below

Bearish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

16187, Below

Neutral

Bearish

50 DMA, Nifty

16572, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

17233, Below

Neutral

Bearish

S & P 500 P/E

18.57

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

18.92

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

22.76, 16.26%

Neutral

Bearish

Dollar/Rupee

77.96, - 0.20%

Neutral

Neutral

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

3

3

Bearish Indications

14

15

Outlook

Bearish

Bearish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.

The markets are correcting. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

UK – CPI, China - PBOC rate decision

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. This week we may get the final flush down. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan is telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2000-style recession trade has begun, with a decline in risk assets across the board. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). 

The S&P 500 is well below the 200 DMA, after spending a very long time above it, and its 200 DMA is decliningMonthly MACDs on most global markets have gone negative after a long time. This spells trouble and opens up significant downside risk ahead. The market is at new lows.

We have got bounces without capitulationThis suggests the lows may not be in and the regime is changing from buying the dip to selling the rip. Risky assets are breaking to the downside across the board. Earnings revisions have been average, but any significant upward revisions appear unlikely. The Fed is aggressively tightening into a recession. Tail risk has skyrocketed recently.  Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has corrected significantly and more is left on the downside.

The transports are leading the next decline. The Dollar, market breadth, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs despite the recent counter-trend move. The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in the recent melt-up in January, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here.  Technicals are tracking fundamentals and have recently turned bearish. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we have rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 2-year period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3500 area is emerging on the S and P, and 14000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. 

The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting a reality check and getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. Yield curves are about to invert yet again reflecting a major upcoming recession. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 3685 (up) and 3665 (down) on the S & P 500 and 15350 (up) and 15200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E is getting torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade despite the recent selloff. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

Monday, 13 June 2022

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 13

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

3901, - 5.05%

Bearish

Bearish

Nifty

16202, - 2.31%

Neutral **

Bearish

China Shanghai Index

3285, 2.80%

Bullish

Bullish

Gold

1875, 1.35%

Bullish

Bullish

WTIC Crude

120.47, 1.35%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

4.28, - 4.23%

Bearish

Bearish

Baltic Dry Index

2320, -11.89%

Bearish

Bearish

Euro

1.0517, - 1.88%

Bearish

Bearish

Dollar/Yen

134.40, 2.71%

Bullish

Bullish

Dow Transports

13369, - 7.45%

Bearish

Bearish

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

110.52, - 2.36%

Bearish

Bearish

High Yield Bonds (ETF)

93.53, - 3.94%

Bearish

Bearish

US 10-year Bond Yield

3.17%, 7.77%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

-219, 29%

Bullish

Neutral

US Vix

27.75, 11.94%

Bearish

Bearish

Skew

122

Neutral

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed

Fear

Bullish

Bullish

20 DMA, S & P 500

4040, Below

Bearish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

4198, Below

Bearish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4440, Below

Bearish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

16315, Below

Neutral

Bearish

50 DMA, Nifty

16788, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

17258, Below

Neutral

Bearish

S & P 500 P/E

19.71

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

20.05

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

19.58, - 2.00%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

78.18, 0.75%

Neutral

Bearish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

6

6

Bearish Indications

13

15

Outlook

Bearish

Bearish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.

The markets are correcting. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

US – PPI, FOMC rate decision, Eurozone –CPI, UK – GDP, Employment data, BOE rate decision, Japan - BOJ rate decision

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. This week has severe market crash implications. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan is telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2000-style recession trade has begun, with a decline in risk assets across the board. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). The S&P 500 is well below the 200 DMA, after spending a long time above it, and its 200 DMA is decliningMonthly MACDs on most global markets have gone negative after a long time. This spells trouble ahead and opens up significant downside risk ahead. We got the 250-point rally in the S & P 500 and are headed back to new lows.

We have got bounces without capitulationThis suggests the lows may not be in and the regime is changing from but the dip to sell the rip. Risky assets are breaking to the downside across the board. Earnings revisions have been average, but any significant upward revisions appear unlikely. Typical late-cycle FED put stuff has led to a taper tantrum following the recent taper announcement from the FED and a likely topTail risk has skyrocketed recently. The market is about to begin an epic correction. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. 

The transports led the most recent rebound and are starting to lead the next decline, The Dollar, market breadth, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs despite the recent counter-trend move. The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in the recent melt-up in January, suggesting a major top may be in. The moment of reckoning is here.  Technicals are tracking fundamentals and have recently turned bearish. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we have rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 2-year period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3600 area is emerging on the S and P, and 15000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get a reality check and get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.

Yield curves are about to invert yet again reflecting a major upcoming recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3915 (up) and 3890 (down) on the S & P 500 and 16300 (up) and 16100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E is getting torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade despite the recent selloff. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.