About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Monday, 20 December 2021

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 20

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

4621, -1.94%

Bearish

Bearish

Nifty

16985, -3.00%

Neutral **

Bearish

China Shanghai Index

3632, -0.93%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

1798, 0.76%

Bullish

Bullish

WTIC Crude

70.30, -1.91%

Bearish

Bearish

Copper

4.29, 0.11%

Neutral

Neutral

Baltic Dry Index

2379, -27.29%

Bearish

Bearish

Euro

1.1240, -0.63%

Bearish

Bearish

Dollar/Yen

113.68, 0.26%

Neutral

Neutral

Dow Transports

15829, -3.51%

Bearish

Bearish

High Yield (Bond ETF)

107.73, -0.31%

Neutral

Neutral

US 10 year Bond Yield

1.41%, -5.72%

Bullish

Bullish

NYSE Summation Index

-328, -67%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

21.57, 15.41%

Bearish

Bearish

Skew

135

Neutral

Neutral

20 DMA, S & P 500

4644, Below

Bearish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

4604, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4346, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

17272, Below

Neutral

Bearish

50 DMA, Nifty

17723, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

16230, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

29.10

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

23.43

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

16.34, 1.73%

Neutral

Bearish

Dollar/Rupee

76.01, 0.42%

Neutral

Neutral

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

5

3

Bearish Indications

10

12

Outlook

Bearish

Bearish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.

The markets have begun a correction. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

US – GDP, UK – GDP

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Deflation is in the air. Feels like a 2000 style recession trade has begun. The recent rebound has run into resistance. Markets have been making new highs amid loads of divergences and a big move beckons for risk assets to the downside. Earnings revisions have been very good, entering a bullish seasonal period, but it is already in the price. Typical late-cycle FED put stuff will likely lead to a taper tantrum following the recent taper announcement from the FED and an imminent topTail risk has skyrocketed with the Skew/Vix ratio recently touching double digits. The market is about to begin an epic correction. Deflationary busts often begin after inflationary scares (the market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and long bonds are telegraphing just that. 

While the transports have improved, the Dollar, market breadth, high yield, and skew are still flashing major warning signs. The epic correction signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very near.  Technicals are about to track fundamentals and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 100% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 12 month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3900 area is emerging on the S and P, and 13000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1800 and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels that may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) continues to dent global GDP significantly and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late, as interest rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 4635 (up) and 4610 (down) on the S & P 500 and 17050 (up) and 16900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E is about to get torched soon (despite the bullish consensus emerging). Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels. Merry Christmas!

 

 

Monday, 13 December 2021

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 13

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

4712, 3.82%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

17511, 1.83%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

3666, 1.63%

Bullish

Bullish

Gold

1783, -0.04%

Neutral

Neutral

WTIC Crude

71.95, 8.59%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

4.29, 0.66%

Bullish

Bullish

Baltic Dry Index

3343, 5.42%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.1312, -0.01%

Neutral

Neutral

Dollar/Yen

113.39, 0.52%

Bullish

Bullish

Dow Transports

16405, 2.74%

Bullish

Bullish

High Yield (Bond ETF)

108.07, 0.74%

Bullish

Bullish

US 10 year Bond Yield

1.48%, 7.39%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

-197, -18%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

18.69, -39.06%

Bullish

Bullish

Skew

147

Bearish

Bearish

20 DMA, S & P 500

4652, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

4574, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4326, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

17458, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

17766, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

16173, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

29.68

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

24.15

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

16.06, -12.98%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

75.72, 0.65%

Neutral

Bearish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

12

13

Bearish Indications

4

5

Outlook

Bullish

Bullish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

The markets have begun a correction. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

US – PPI, FOMC rate decision, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, CPI, UK – Employment data,  CPI, BOE rate decision, Japan – BOJ rate decision

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The tape has become a bit bullish. Deflation is in the air. Feels like a 2000 style recession trade has begun. The recent rebound has run into resistance. Markets have been making new highs amid loads of divergences and a big move beckons for risk assets. Earnings revisions have been very good, entering a bullish seasonal period, but it is already in the price. Typical late-cycle FED put stuff will likely lead to a taper tantrum following the recent taper announcement from the FED and an imminent topTail risk has skyrocketed with the Skew/Vix ratio recently touching double digits. The market is about to begin an epic correction. Deflationary busts often begin after inflationary scares (the market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and long bonds are telegraphing just that. 

While market breadth and transports have improved, the Dollar, high yield, interest rates, and the skew are still flashing major warning signs. The epic correction signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very near.  Technicals are about to track fundamentals and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 100% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 12 month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3900 area is emerging on the S and P, and 13000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1800 and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels that may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) has dented global GDP significantly and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late, as interest rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 4725 (up) and 4700 (down) on the S & P 500 and 17600 (up) and 17450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E is about to get torched soon (despite the bullish consensus emerging). Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.