Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 06

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2489, -2.08%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	8084, -6.66%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2764, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1649, -0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	28.97, 34.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.18, 0.97%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	616, 10.79%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0805, -3.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	108.47, 0.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	7305, -5.12%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	90.54, -4.07%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.60%, -9.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-1038, 7.32%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	46.80, -28.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	121	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2531, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2954, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3021, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9030, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10763, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11411, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	18.73	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty P/E	18.22	Neutral	Neutral
India Vix	55.30, -21.43%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	76.24, 1.02%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	7
Bearish Indications	7	9
Outlook	Neutral	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – CPI, UK – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is over (break above 2630 implies the rally cold extend to 2740 and maybe 2840) and it is going to crash to 1800 soon. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro was a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2500 (up) and 2475 (down) on the S & P 500 and 8150 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 30

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2542, 10.26%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8660, -0.97%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2772, 0.97%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1631, 9.83%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	21.84, -2.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.17, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	556, -11.04%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1143, 4.19%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	107.94, -2.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7699, 12.60%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond)	94.38, 9.57%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.68%, -14.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-1120, 5.32%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	65.54, -0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	117	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2657, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3033, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3030, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9613, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11081, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11483, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	19.12	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty P/E	19.52	Neutral	Neutral
India Vix	70.39, 4.90%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	75.48, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	8
Bearish Indications	6	8
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, UK – GDP, Eurozone – German employment data, CPI, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P rebounded and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is likely to extend to 2740 following which it could crash to 1800. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro was a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2555 (up) and 2530 (down) on the S & P 500 and 8750 (up) and 8600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.