About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Saturday, 28 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

A bit of curve steepening going into next weeks fed meeting. Momentum clearly outpacing value and that ever expanding ECB balance sheet. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Sunday, 22 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 23

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2802, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	11010, -0.08%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2829, -0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1231, -0.81%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	68.26, -3.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.76, -0.70%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1657, 1.53%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1724, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	111.49, -0.76%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10742, 1.85%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.71, 0.06%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.90%, 2.26%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	646, -4.53%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	12.86, 5.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	153	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2762, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2751, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2688, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10842, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10757, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10508, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.53, 10.02%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.74, 0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	5
Bearish Indications	8	8
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – CPI, New Zealand – Employment data, Europe – ECB rate decision, U.S – GDP, Russia – Rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes near 2830 on the S and P, 1.20 on the Euro and 11,100 on the Nifty. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2810 (up) and 2790 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11100 (up) and 10900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 19 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The Chinese yuan continues its sell off taking other emerging currencies with it. More curve flattening amidst insanely high valuations. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.