Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 09

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2760, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10773, 0.54%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2747, -3.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1256, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	73.80, -0.47%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	2.82, -4.79%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1612, 21.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1750, 0.47%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.41, -0.18%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10474, 1.25%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.56, 0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.83%, -0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	577, 6.62%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.37, -16.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	141	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2750, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2724, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2674, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10756, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10706, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10456, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.44, -3.83%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	68.75, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	11
Bearish Indications	3	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. The markets are about to make secondary tops.
On the Horizon	U.S – PPI, CPI, Canada – BOC rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally should lead to a major secondary top in key asset classes near 2830 on the S and P, 1.20 on the Euro and 11, 100 on the Nifty. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2770 (up) and 2750 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Mid Week Market Insight

More trouble in emerging market land. Massive curve flattening across the globe. China free fall continues. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 02

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2718, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10714, -0.99%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2847, -1.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1255, -1.27%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	74.15, 8.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.97, -2.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1329, -1.34%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1694, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.61, 0.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10345, -3.97%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.48, -1.06%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.85%, -1.76%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	541, -22.35%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.09, 16.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	142	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2755, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2717, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2669, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10745, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10692, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10440, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.94, 7.61%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.44, 0.87%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	11	13
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	U.S – Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. High yield is diverging from the oil price and so are transports from the major indices. The critical levels to watch are 2730 (up) and 2705 (down) on the S & P and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.