About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 3 June 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 04

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2735, 0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10696, 0.86%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3075, -2.11%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1299, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
65.81, -3.05%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.10, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1090, -1.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1665, 0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
109.52, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10894, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.51, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.90%, -1.23%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
534, 8.78%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.46, 1.82%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2712, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2673, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2639, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10665, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10519, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10353, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.57, 7.32%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.93, -1.15%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6
7
Bearish Indications
4
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Retail sales, RBA rate decision, GDP, Japan – GDP, UK- PMI’s, Manufacturing production, Euro – Draghi speech, U.S – ISM PMI, Crude oil inventories, Canada – Poloz Speech, PMI, Employment data, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 04

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2745 (up) and 2725 (down) on the S & P and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 30 May 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge as the euro plunges in response to the crisis in Italy, which has sent Italian bond yields skyrocketing. A flight to quality in US bonds as a risk off trade emerges. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today: 

Sunday, 27 May 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 28

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2721, 0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10605, 0.08%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3141, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1304, 0.96%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
67.88, -4.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.08, 0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1109, -15.02%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1655, -1.09%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
109.53, -1.12%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10900, 1.58%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.70, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.93%, -4.43%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
491, 17.70%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.22, -1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
141
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2698, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2674, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2634, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10669, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10475, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10335, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.65, -10.64%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.71, -0.40%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
6
Bearish Indications
6
7
Outlook
Bullish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – Orr speech, China – PMI’s, UK- PMI, Euro – German employment data, CPI, German PMI, U.S – Consumer confidence, GDP, Crude oil inventories, employment data, ISM PMI, Home sales, Canada – BOC rate decision, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals may 28

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2730 (up) and 2710 (down) on the S & P and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.