Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2735, 0.49%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
10696, 0.86%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3075, -2.11%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1299, -0.34%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
WTIC
Crude
|
65.81, -3.05%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
3.10, 0.68%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1090, -1.71%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1665, 0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
109.52, -0.01%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
10894, -0.06%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
35.51, -0.06%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.90%, -1.23%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
534, 8.78%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
13.46, 1.82%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
135
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2712, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2673, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2639, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10665, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10519, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10353, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
13.57, 7.32%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
66.93, -1.15%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
6
|
7
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
4
|
5
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
Australia
– Retail sales, RBA rate decision, GDP,
Japan – GDP, UK- PMI’s,
Manufacturing production, Euro – Draghi
speech, U.S – ISM PMI, Crude oil
inventories, Canada – Poloz Speech,
PMI, Employment data, India – RBI rate
decision
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and
dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to
watch are 2745 (up) and 2725 (down)
on the S & P and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.