About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Tuesday, 7 November 2017

A Look at Some Major Markets

Sunday, 5 November 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 06

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2588, 0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10453, 1.25%	Bullish **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3372, -1.32%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1270, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	55.64, 3.23%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.12, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1496, -3.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1607, -0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	114.06, 0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9755, -1.78%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	37.00, -0.16%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.34%, -3.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	606, -17.22%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	9.14, -6.73%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	130	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2565, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2522, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2426, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10221, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10056, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9509, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	11.91, 3.79%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.66, -0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	7
Bearish Indications	4	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	New Zealand – Rate decision, Australia – Rate decision, UK – Manufacturing production, U.S – Oil inventories, Canada – PMI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2600 (up) and 2575(down) on the S & P and 10500 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 2 November 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Midweek Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.