|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
2426, -0.65%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Nifty
|
9837, 1.30%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3269, 1.88%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Gold
|
1292, -0.19%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
WTIC
Crude
|
48.66, -0.33%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Copper
|
2.94, 0.94%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1247, 14.19%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Euro
|
1.1760, -0.51%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
109.18, 0.01%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
9095, -1.13%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.81, 0.04%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.19%, 0.23%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
242, -47.50%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
US
Vix
|
14.26, -8.06%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Skew
|
129
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2466, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2450, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2347, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9958, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9791, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
9028, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
India
Vix
|
14.57, -4.11%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.07, -0.01%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
8
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
6
|
4
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 was down and the Nifty bounced last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
|
||
|
On
the Horizon
|
Euro
Zone – German ZEW sentiment, Draghi speeches, German PMI, German IFO business
climate index, German GDP, UK – GDP, Canada – Retail sales, U.S – Home sales,
Oil inventories, Durable goods, Yellen speech
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty bounced slightly last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are finally shifting from complacency. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2415 (down) on the S & P and 9900 (up) and 9750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
