Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 3

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2423, -0.61%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	9521, -0.56%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3192, 1.09%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1242, -1.12%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	46.04, 7.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.71, 3.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	920, 7.60%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1424, 2.06%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.47, 1.07%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	9564, 1.86%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	37.20, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.30%, 7.37%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	584, 0.17%	Neutral	Neutral
US Vix	11.18, 11.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	130	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2434, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2410, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2294, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9607, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	9483, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8830, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	11.73, 1.51%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.60, 0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	9
Bearish Indications	5	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – Tankan survey, China – PMI, Australia – Retail sales, Rate decision,  Euro Zone – German PMI, UK – PMI, GDP, U.S – ISM data, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes, Employment data, Canada – Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The re-inflation trade emerged last week. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2410 (down) on the S & P and 9550 (up) and 9450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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