Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2399, 0.63%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
9285, -0.20%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3103, -1.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1227, -3.26%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
46.22, -6.30%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.53, -3.03%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
994, -10.37%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.100, 0.92%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
112.70, 1.09%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9190, 1.01%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.93, -0.11%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.35%, 3.07%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
609, -1.77%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
10.57, -2.31%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
131
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2368, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2366, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2246, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9232, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9112, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
8654, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
11.99, 10.38%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.29, 0.08%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
8
|
8
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
7
|
7
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mildly
bullish.
The
market is about to break down. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
China
– CPI, New loan data,
New
Zealand – Rate decision, Wheeler speech, Euro Zone – French elections, Draghi
speech, German GDP, UK – Rate decision,
US
– CPI, Retail sales, U. Mich. consumer confidence data
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are mildly bullish for
the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and
commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The
critical levels to watch are 2410 (up) and 2390 (down) on the S & P and 9350
(up) and 9200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels
could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
