About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 30 April 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May1

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2384, 1.51%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9304, 2.02%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3155, -0.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1268, -1.61%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
49.33, -0.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.61, 2.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1109, -7.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.090, 1.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.44, 2.23%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9098, -0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
37.14, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.28%, 2.01%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
620, 26.94%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.82, -26.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
147
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2360, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2363, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2241, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9211, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9069, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8636, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.86, -4.82%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.23, -0.72%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

12
Bearish Indications
6
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia - Rate decision, RBA governor Lowe speech, New Zealand – Employment data, China – PMI, Japan – Kuroda speech, Euro Zone – GDP, German employment data, Canada – Employment data, Bank of Canada governor Poloz speech, U.S – personal consumption data, ISM data, FOMC rate decision, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 1

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2395 (up) and 2375 (down) on the S & P and 9400 (up) and 9200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

Thursday, 27 April 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.