About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Monday, 24 April 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Sunday, 23 April 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 24

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2349, 0.85%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	9119, -0.34%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3173, -3.14%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1289, 0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	49.62, -6.69%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.54, -1.28%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1195, -7.79%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.073, 1.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	109.16, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9134, 2.92%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.87, 0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.24%, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	489, 6.96%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.63, 8.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	148	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2352, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2357, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2234, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9159, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	9017, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8611, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	11.42, -1.34%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	64.70, 0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	7
Bearish Indications	7	6
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are tilting towards the bearish side. The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia - CPI, RBA governor speech, Japan - Rate decision, CPI, Euro Zone – French elections, German CPI, Euro zone CPI, ECB rate decision, U.K – GDP, Switzerland – SNB Jordan speech, Canada – GDP, U.S – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Personal consumption data, GDP

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are entering panic mode. Market internals, the yen and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2360 (up) and 2340 (down) on the S & P and 9200 (up) and 9050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 20 April 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.