About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 9 April 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 10

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2356, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	9198, 0.27%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3287, 1.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1257, 0.50%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	52.24, 3.24%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.65, -0.21%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1223, -5.71%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.060, -0.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	111.09, -0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9105, -0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	36.76, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.37%, -0.96%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	405, 24.74%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.87, 4.04%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	133	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2361, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2347, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2222, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9121, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8927, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8567, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	11.69, -5.86%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	64.48, -0.50%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	9
Bearish Indications	4	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – Kuroda speech, China – Loan data, CPI, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German ZEW survey, UK – Carney speech, CPI, U.S – Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, CPI, Canada – Rate decision,

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were little changed last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2365 (up) and 2345 (down) on the S & P and 9250 (up) and 9100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Friday, 7 April 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.