Some Developing Non Conformations in the Stock Market

With yet another Fed day arriving there are a number of non conformations in the market which have not matched recent highs in the stock market. Charts are courtesy nasdaq.com:


1) No new highs in the Transports in over 1.5 years:


2) The same holds for the Russel 2000 small cap Index:


 3) Financial stocks are lagging way behind:


4) Oil stocks are nowhere near their yearly highs:


5) Base metals like copper and related stocks are lagging way behind as well:


6) Last but not the least the CBOE Volatility Index the Vix (Chart from marketwatch.com) is yet to take out its yearly lows:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2175, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8541, 0.00%	Neutral**	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3013, -1.36%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1323, -1.07%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	44.19, -4.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.24, 0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	718, -3.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.098, -0.53%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	106.20, 1.27%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	7966, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	36.36, 0.69%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.57%, -1.51%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	1256, 9.06%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.67, -4.02%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2119, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2097, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2037, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8388, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8202, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7832, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.50, -0.90%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	67.15, 0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	9
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are trying to break above resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – Rate decision, CPI, Australia– CPI, UK – GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, German CPI, Euro zone GDP, Canada – GDP, US – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, FOMC rate decision, GDP, Personal consumption
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The markets are trying to take out significant long term resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2160 (down) on the S & P and 8600 (up) and 8450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Chart of the Week - Deutsche Bank 2016 vs Lehman Brothers 2008

The Chart of the day is via Chris Vermeulen from the goldandoilguy.com and shows a comparison of the price performance of Lehman Brothers in 2008 to the current price performance of Deutsche Bank today. With a number of European and US banks having similar charts to Deutsche Bank and the bank index not confirming recent new highs in the broader market, once can all but wonder if a repeat of 2008 is on the cards: