About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 15 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2023, -3.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7762,- 2.41%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3581, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1083, -0.51%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
40.73, -8.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.16, -3.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
560, -11.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0771, 0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
122.61, -0.45%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8010, -2.80%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.28%, -2.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
287, -43.05%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
20.08, 40.13%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2071, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2008, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2064, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8085, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7981, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8351, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.65, -9.35%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.10, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral





Overall
S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
2
2

Bearish Indications
10
8

Outlook
Bullish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down big last week. Indicators are bearish. Markets are getting oversold, so we may get a short term bounce from near the 2000 level on the S &P 500.


On the Horizon
Canada – CPI, China – Loan data, Euro Zone – ZEW Sentiment Survey, Japan – GDP, U.K – CPI, U.S – CPI, Fed Minutes.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The US market was and the Nifty sold off sharply last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are likely to continue to correct with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED. An oversold bounce may occur from levels near 2000 on the S & P 500. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-6

1)What You Missed In The Stock Market Last Week - Motley Fool

TrueCar and Devon Energy were both winners this week after third-quarter results, but FireEye had a much rougher week for investors."

2) As 'Fedexodus' Looms, Big Stock-Market Gains 'May Be Behind Us' - Wall Street Journal (blog)

At first, the market seemed so, well, mature. The market didn't tank on Friday, in the face of that strong jobs report and rising odds that the Fed would hike rates. The market's maturity is getting tested on Monday."


3) Former Gordon Brown Advisor Damian McBride Says ‘Stock Up On Water, Market Crash Is Coming’

A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.
Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market di..."





4) Is BRIC Investing Losing Its Appeal? - Bloomberg


Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab's senior vice president and chief global investment strategist, discusses corporate earnings and the outlook for global stocks with Bloomberg's Mike Regan and Betty Liu on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)..."

5)12 investing books to read if you want to get rich - Business Insider

If you want to get rich, the single most..."

6) Central banks rescuing the stock markets? - Forex Crunch

This morning on the Tip TV Finance Show Clem Chambers, Founder of ADVFN, joined Nick Batsford to discuss how central banks are influencing the stock market, as"




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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.