About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 19 April 2015

Transports S and P 500 ratio, No new highs in more than 1 year

For a healthy advance in the market according to dow theory the transports ought to be making or conforming new highs in the broader market. Taking a look at the transports S and P 500 ratio, there has been significant underperformance of the transports of late, with no new highs in the transports and consequently the transports s and p 500 ratio since the December of last year. A major bearish divergence. Chart courtesy StockCharts.com.

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Thursday, 16 April 2015

Why 8100 is a very important Number for the Nifty?

In more than a year now since this bull run began the Nifty has not violated its 20 day weekly moving average (WMA) which comes in at 8100. That all changed recently where we broke and closed below the 20 WMA for several days and are just below that level now. The breach of this level to the upside suggests some strength ahead. If this level acts as resistance there could be trouble ahead and a major change in trend could emerge with the 20 WMA acting as major resistance going forward. Chart courtesy StockCharts.com.

Hottest Deals On Refurbished Apple Products | JemJem Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.
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Monday, 13 April 2015

Update on Nifty Strangle, Time to Book Profits

I had highlighted the Nifty 8400-8800 strangle at 95 in an earlier post.
http://rajveersmarketviews.blogspot.in/2015/04/option-trading-strategy-indian-market.html
As of Now
Nifty - Current Spot - 8823
CNX NIFTY (^NSEI)
Nifty 8400 Put - 15
Nifty 8800 Call - 135
Total -150
Profit -55%
Time to book profits!
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.