Here
is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an
aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and
Commodity markets and the Economy:
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Monday 10 July 2017
Daily Market Insight
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday 9 July 2017
Daily Market Insight
Here
is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an
aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and
Commodity markets and the Economy:
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 10
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2425, 0.07%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
9666, 1.52%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3218, 0.80%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1210, -2.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
44.23, -3.93%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.65, -2.36%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
829, -9.89%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1401, -0.20%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
113.91, 1.28%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9695, 1.37%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.83, -0.54%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.39%, 3.95%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
560, -4.17%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
11.19, 0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Skew
|
132
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2432, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2414, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2300, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9603, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9524, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
8850, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
10.87, -7.37%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.59, -0.02%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
8
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
8
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
market is breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
China
– CPI, UK - Employment data, U.S – Trade balance, Oil inventories, Retail
sales, Yellen speech, PPI, CPI, Canada – Rate decision, Poloz speech
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are mixed for the
upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. Commodities are breaking down yet
again. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline
ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2415 (down) on the S
& P and 9700 (up) and 9600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.