Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 15

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6584, 1.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	25114, 1.51%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3871, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	3686, 1.53%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	62.69, 0.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	4.65, 2.16%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	302, 1.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2126, 7.43%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1734, 0.18%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	147.67, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	15628, -0.63%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	112.01, 0.76%	Bullish	Bullish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.69, 0.18%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.06%, -0.64%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	616, 10.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.76, -2.77%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	150	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6473, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6385, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	5985, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	24806, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	24902, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	24127, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	30.55	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.06	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	10.12, -6.10%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	88.28, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	14	13
Bearish Indications	3	2
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping again. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, UK – CPI, BOE rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and recession risk has increased significantly. The sentiment is neutral. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon, as we enter bearish seasonality till the end of October. The macro-environment was rapidly deteriorating even before the recent tariff issue. The recent massive breakdown in transports (subsequent non-conformation for a possible second time) is quite ominous. This, combined with the oil's free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected significantly from recent highs and will likely underperform going forward.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose as interest rates fell. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is neutral. Volatility (S&P 500) fell.

A currency crisis should resume at any moment and push risky assets to new lows. Deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that despite intermittent spikes in yields. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rally is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is correcting from recent highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth falters. The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The Dollar is at major lows, while commodities and bond yields are flashing significant warning signs.

Global yield curves are steepening after having inverted a second time, reflecting the arrival of a significant economic slowdown. This is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6595 (up) and 6570 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25200 (up) and 25050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade. Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold as this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.