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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Monday 26 August 2024

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 26

 

Asset Class

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

5635, 1.45%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

24823, 1.15%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

2854, -0.87%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

2549, 0.43%

Neutral

Neutral

WTIC Crude

74.96, -2.20%

Bearish

Bearish

Copper

4.25, 2.45%

Bullish

Bullish

CRB Index

279, 1.19%

Bullish

Bullish

Baltic Dry Index

1762, 4.20%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.1190, 1.47%

Bullish

Bullish

Dollar/Yen

144.37, -2.18%

Bearish

Bearish

Dow Transports

15971, 1.90%

Bullish

Neutral

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

112.17, 0.88%

Bullish

Bullish

High Yield Bonds (ETF)

96.86, 0.71%

Bullish

Bullish

US 10-year Bond Yield

3.80%, -2.26%

Bullish

Bullish

NYSE Summation Index

777, 39%

Bullish

Neutral

US Vix

15.86, 7.16%

Bearish

Neutral

S & P 500 Skew

154

Bearish

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Nifty MMI Index

Fear

Neutral

Bullish

20 DMA, S & P 500

5443, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

5488, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

5097, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

24544, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

24276, Above

Neutral

Bullish

200 DMA, Nifty

22316, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

29.44

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

23.06

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

13.55, -5.90%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

83.81, -0.08%

Neutral

Neutral

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

13

14

Bearish Indications

5

4

 

Outlook

Bullish

Bullish

Observation

 

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

Markets are getting back to resistance. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

Eurozone – German GDP, CPI, US – GDP

*Nifty

 

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S&P 500 and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are back at resistance. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary one. The sentiment is neutral, and the current bounce may stall near prior highs, after which carry trade liquidation should resume. The Nifty is near new highs and will likely underperform after this bounce.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar fell. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth improved, and the sentiment is neutral. This week, fear (S&P 500) rose as a possible FED Pivot looms.

After this rally, a currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows. Despite the recent inflationary spike, deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth peaks.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. After correcting significantly, the market has made new highs, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields continue to flash major warning signs.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly, reflecting a major upcoming recessionThe recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 5650 (up) and 5620 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24900 (up) and 24750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched again and likely be a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class (though overextended short-term) to own over the next decade. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.