Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 22

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	4967, -3.05%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	22147, -1.65%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3065, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	2407, 1.37%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	82.11, -4.14%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	4.49, 5.51%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	298, 0.09%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1919, 10.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0655, 0.12%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	154.65, 0.89%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	15084, -2.67%	Bearish	Bearish
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	105.03, -0.97%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	93.03, -0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.62%, 2.34%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	157, -73%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	18.71, 8.09%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	133	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S & P 500	5159, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	5118, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	4674, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	22287, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	22161, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	20606, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	26.96	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.68	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	13.46, 16.69%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	83.37, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	7
Bearish Indications	10	11
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are correcting. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – GDP, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are correcting. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. We have corrected below the 50 DMA, as we exit bearish seasonality. Markets are oversold so a bounce is likely. The Nifty has started to correct and will likely underperform.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets fell, as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar was little changed. Commodities were unchanged. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is now bearish. Fear rose this week, as a possible reality check from an immediate FED Pivot loom.

After this rally, a currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board, as earnings growth peaks.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has rebounded after correcting significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 4980 (up) and 4955 (down) on the S&P 500 and 22250 (up) and 22050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class, (though overextended short-term) to own over the next decade. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000, just imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.