Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 11

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	5124, -0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	22494, 0.51%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3046, 0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	2186, 4.32%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	77.85, -2.65%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.89, 0.76%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	277, -0.18%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	2345, 6.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0938, 0.93%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	147.07, -2.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	15718, -0.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	109.02, 1.02%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	94.69, 0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.08%, -2.59%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	759, 9%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.74, 12.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	141	Bearish	Bearish
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S & P 500	5061, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	4924, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	4551, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	22103, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	21849, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	20130, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	27.81	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	23.22	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	13.61, -9.20%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	82.75, -0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	12
Bearish Indications	7	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P was unchanged and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – German CPI, UK – GDP, US – CPI, PPI, Japan – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The Nifty has started to correct and will likely underperform. We are way overbought short-term and are overdue a pullback here to as low as the 50 DMA soon, as we embrace bearish seasonality.

The past week saw US equity markets little changed. Most emerging markets rose, as interest rates fell. Transports fell. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar fell. Commodities were unchanged. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth improved, and the sentiment is now exuberant. Fear rose this week, as a possible reality check from an immediate FED Pivot loom.

After this rally, a currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board, as earnings growth peaks.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has rebounded after correcting significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs.

The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in January 2022, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 5135 (up) and 5110 (down) on the S&P 500 and 22550 (up) and 22400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own over the next decade. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000, just imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.