Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 16

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	4328, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	19751, 0.50%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3088, -0.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1946, 5.46%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	86.35, 4.30%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.57, -1.59%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	284, 2.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1945, 0.83%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0510, -0.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	149.57, 0.17%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	14699, -0.73%	Bearish	Bearish
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	101.38, 1.40%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	89.17, 0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.62%, -2.31%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	-583, 11%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	19.32, 10.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	144	Bearish	Bearish
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S & P 500	4326, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	4404, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	4221, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	19734, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	19607, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	18554, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	24.71	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.33	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	10.62, 3.08%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	83.42, 0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	11
Bearish Indications	8	8
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are putting in a short-term bottom. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – CPI, Eurozone – CPI, China – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P 500 and the Nifty were little changed last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are oversold and are likely to find a short-term bottom soon that will produce a meaningful rally as we enter bullish seasonality. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The Nifty is correcting from its recent highs.

The past week saw US equity markets unchanged. Most emerging markets were unchanged, as interest rates fell. Transports are still leading down. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar rose. Commodities rose. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth rebounded, and the sentiment is now bearish. Fear rose this week, as a possible reality check from a FED Pivot looms.

The recent currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is encountering resistance near its recent highs. We have got bounces from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board, as downward earnings revisions are underway.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has rebounded after correcting significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs.

The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in January 2022, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on challenging macros.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 4340 (up) and 4315 (down) on the S&P 500 and 19850 (up) and 19650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own over the next decade, though the 2000 level could act as short-term resistance. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dotcom bust in 2000, just imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.