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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 11 October 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 12

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

3477, 3.84%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

11914, 4.36%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

3272, 1.68%

Bullish

Bullish

Gold

1936, 1.51%

Bullish

Bullish

WTIC Crude

40.55, 9.45%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

3.08, 3.55%

Bullish

Bullish

Baltic Dry Index

1970, -2.48%

Bearish

Bearish

Euro

1.1829, 0.99%

Bullish

Bullish

Dollar/Yen

105.61, 0.27%

Neutral

Neutral

Dow Transports

11862, 5.00%

Bullish

Bullish

High Yield (Bond ETF)

105.48, 1.33%

Bullish

Bullish

US 10 year Bond Yield

0.78%, 10.42%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

267, 802.50%

Bullish

Neutral

US Vix

25.00, -9.52%

Bullish

Bullish

Skew

122

Neutral

Neutral

20 DMA, S and P 500

3356, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S and P 500

3380, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S and P 500

3117, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

11411, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

11365, Above

Neutral

Bullish

200 DMA, Nifty

10733, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

35.04

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

34.71

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

20.38, 11.06%

Neutral

Bearish

Dollar/Rupee

73.02, -0.37%

Neutral

Neutral

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

14

14

Bearish Indications

3

4

Outlook

Bullish

Bullish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

US – CPI, UK – Employment data, Eurozone – CPI

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


            The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the coming week. The moment of reckoning has arrived.  Currently bullish technicals are trumping everything else. Just a matter of time before bearish fundamentals take over. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a October crash is on the menu following the recent bounce from the 50dma. Low volatility suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short orderThe FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a lifetime with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3490 (up) and 3465 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12000 (up) and 11850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.