Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 11
Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2708, 0.05%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
10944, 0.46%
|
Neutral **
|
Neutral
|
China Shanghai Index
|
2618, 0.00%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1319, -0.27%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
WTIC Crude
|
52.72, -4.60%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.81, 1.35%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
601, -6.82%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1350, -0.87%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
109.75, 0.25%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow Transports
|
10177, 0.52%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High Yield (ETF)
|
35.17, 0.81%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
2.63%, -2.19%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
899, 34.11%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
16.72, -2.60%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
128
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
2664, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
2616, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2743, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
10864, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
10818, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
10856, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India Vix
|
15.57, -0.97%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
71.14 -0.44%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
8
|
9
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
4
|
3
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were
relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse.
Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the Horizon
|
UK – GDP, CPI, Euro
Zone – German GDP, US – CPI, Japan – GDP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy Google finance, Stock
charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever
is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century. The market got
its oversold bounce of about 350 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from
bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty
going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is finally
catching up to the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the
downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5
year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg
omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative
tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2720
(up) and 2700 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11000 (up) and 10850 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.
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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Thanks for this useful post. Share market classes in Chennai
ReplyDelete