Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 29

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2659, -3.94%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10030, -2.65%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2599, 1.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1236, 0.58%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	67.59, -2.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.74, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1519, -3.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1422, -0.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	111.81, -0.61%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9966, -4.53%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.09, -0.79%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.08%, -3.78%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-715, -43.11%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	24.16, 21.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	122	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2802, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2857, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2767, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10457, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11048, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10771, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.23, -2.80%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	73.09, -0.48%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	3	4
Bearish Indications	13	13
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets are indicating a major trend change. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – CPI, US – Employment data, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate decision, Canada – GDP, Employment data, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are oversold again but the medium trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2670 (up) and 2645 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10100 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.