About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 29 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 30

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2819, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11278, 2.44%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2874, 1.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1223, -0.66%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	68.69, 0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.80, 1.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1708, 3.08%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1661, -0.53%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.98, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10957, 2.01%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.84, 0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.96%, 2.25%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	581, -9.98%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	13.03, 1.32%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	145	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2788, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2762, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2695, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10957, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10800, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10538, Above	Neutral	Neutral
India Vix	12.31, -9.05%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	68.60, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	10
Bearish Indications	6	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – BOJ rate decision, New Zealand – Employment data, Europe – German employment data, CPI, U.K – BOE rate decision, U.S – FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Canada – GDP, India – Rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2830 (up) and 2805 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11400 (up) and 11200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.