About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Chart of the Week - S & P 500 real sales growth

The chart of the week is via multpl.com and tracks real sales growth of the S & P 500 companies. Real sales growth as measured by the annual change in sales adjusted for inflation entered negative territory in 2015 and continues to remain so. The last time this occurred was in 2009. Will there be a similar price adjustment to reflect the declining fundamentals?

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Wednesday, Apr 16
12:00	US	Fed's Hammack speech
13:00	US	20-Year Bond Auction	4.810%
13:30	US	Fed's Chair Powell speech
16:00	US	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$112.0B	$35.2B	Revised from $-45.2B
16:00	US	Total Net TIC Flows	$284.7B		Revised from $-48.8B
18:45	NZ	Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.3%
18:45	NZ	Consumer Price Index (QoQ)		0.7%
19:00	US	Fed's Schmid speech
21:30	AU	National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)
21:30	AU	Participation Rate		67.0%

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.