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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 16 August 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 17

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Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2092, 0.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8519, -0.54%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3965, 5.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1113, 1.82%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
42.74, -2.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.34, 0.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1055, -12.08%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1097, 1.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
124.32, 0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8319, 0.82%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.20%, 0.97%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-298, 11.96%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.83, -4.18%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2096, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2095, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2077, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8495, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8386, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8449, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.02, 7.44%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.12, 2.22%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
10

Bearish Indications
5
6

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was up last week while the Nifty under performed. Indicators are bullish.
The Vix is indicating complacency.  Once again I will look for topping action in the Nifty and the S and P 500 in the upcoming bounce.


On the Horizon
Japan GDP, US, UK and Canada CPI, US FOMC Minutes, US PMI






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


PureVPN
Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. I will look for some topping action in the Nifty and the S and P 500 in the upcoming bounce. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.
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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.