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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts

Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Are we staring down at the great depression of the 21 st century?

Some key Indicators are painting a tell tale sign of another great depression:
Lets take a look at a few charts courtesy yahoo finance and marketwatch.com:
1) Despite all the talk of interest rates going up from a phase out of the FED's #QE policies bond prices have moved up with yields about to head down in a big way:
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Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX)
2) The baltic dry index (#bdi) despite its recent rally is over 95% below its all time peak it hit in 2008. Global shipping woes despite a so called economic recovery!
us stock market DMS Baltic Index I (DBIAX)

3) #Gold continues to spiral down and is well over 40% down from its all time high's:



4) The #dollar is becoming king again as the #Euro collapses which could result in the liquidation of carry trades:

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5) #Oil has absolutely collapsed down over 50% from highs it hit just a year ago:


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These developments taken together with ongoing bear markets in several key asset classes , new lows for the velocity of money and surging margin debt make the great depression (#greatdep) of the 21 st century inevitable.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.