Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2942, -0.30%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
11789,
0.55%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2979, -0.77%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1413, 1.17%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
58.20,
1.34%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.72, 0.48%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1340, 8.15%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1370,
0.02%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.91,
0.56%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10462,
1.06%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (Bond)
|
108.96,
-0.21%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
2.01%,
-2.53%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
592, 7.39%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
15.08,
-2.08%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
118
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2890, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2881, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2777, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
11843,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
11705,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11099,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.95,
2.34%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
68.96,
-0.90%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
11
|
11
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
1
|
3
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish
for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
US – Employment data, Euro Zone –
German employment data
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 was relatively unchanged and the Nifty was
up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. QE forever from the FED is about
to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to
another top in global equity markets. The market is establishing a major secondary top with non-conformation from the
transports. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish and the markets
are about to get smashed by a strong dollar.
Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg
omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high
off late as the yield curve inverts.
The critical levels to watch for the week
are 2955 (up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11700
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2951, 2.20%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
11724,
-0.84%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3002, 4.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1403, 4.71%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
57.59,
9.67%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.70, 2.66%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1194, 10.05%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1368,
1.42%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.32,
-1.17%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10353,
0.46%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
High
Yield (Bond)
|
109.17,
1.28%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
2.06%,
-1.60%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
551, 49.13%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
15.40,
0.79%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
119
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2856, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2878, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2776, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
11870,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
11687,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11096,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.61,
5.15%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
69.58,
-0.29%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
13
|
11
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
2
|
5
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the
week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
US – GDP, UK – GDP, Euro
Zone – CPI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top
in global equity markets. The market is
establishing a major secondary top with non-conformation from the transports.
The trend is changing from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for
significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg
omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high
off late as the yield curve inverts.
The critical levels to watch for the week
are 2960 (up) and 2940 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11800 (up) and 11650
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings,
Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are
manufactur...
8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.