Grexit will eventually happen, time to position for the next big move in the market

After #Greece defaulted on the #IMF, Greeks rejected the austerity plan proposed by the EU comprehensively. We now have had a bailout package for Greece. The IMF has expressed concerns about joining the bailout adding to the uncertainty. Eventually after all the bailouts a #Grexit may prove to be the only way out. Regardless some key markets are poised for big moves:

Let us take a look at the #Euro first. The Euro appears to have put in a near term top near it's recent highs near the 1.16 level and has been correcting lower. It appears to be poised for a big move and has already corrected below the 1.13 level. Like the Euro 1.11 put with the 1.13 call as a hedge.

Next let us look at #oil which has broken down from its highs near 62$.
Can play the next move likely to the downside to 40$ via the oil 44 put with the 46 call as a hedge or via a strangle on the oil ETF USO. Oil will likely head to 35 in the upcoming months.


Moving onto gold, #Gold seems to be headed for new lows after breaking the 1100 mark. Following the news flow out of Greece and the strong dollar further weakness looks likely despite the recent flight to safety bid. Like the 108 put on the Gold ETF GLD, The 110 call may be considered as a hedge:



Not to forget the #SandP500, which has corrected from its recent highs near 2135 to about 1867. A short term down move to 1900 appears on the cards and can be played via a 1970 put with a 2010 call as a hedge.



 Finally the #Nifty has been breaking down from its recent highs near 8650. Can trade the next big move down to 7800 via the 7900 put with the 8100 call as a hedge.

Big moves in markets likely as Grexit may eventually be in play http://t.co/nw03miaufB pic.twitter.com/UjLObaHsUN

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) August 29, 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning May18

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2123, 0.31%	Neutral**	Neutral
Nifty	8262, 0.90%	Neutral	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	4309, 2.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1223, 3.02%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	59.96, 0.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.93, 0.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	634, 10.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.146, 2.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	119.35, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	8681, -0.98%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	254, -17%	Bearish	Bearish
US Vix	12.38, -3.73%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2105, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2089, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2033, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8283, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8522, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8299, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.82, 3.7%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	63.38, -0.5%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	9
Bearish Indications	2	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 is at the top of its trading range close to all time highs while the Nifty is sitting just below its 20 and 200 DMA. The summation index and transports are still diverging.
On the Horizon	Greece, EU and UK Inflation Data, EU Consumer confidence, Japanese GDP, US and Canada CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Rounding Top Pattern in the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index Suggests Lower levels for the Nifty in the Months Ahead

The weekly chart of the Indian stock market Nifty index shows a rounding top formation that targets 6000 on the Index. This coincides with a rounding bottom that is forming on the weekly chart in the India Vix which is a measure of Indian stock market volatility suggesting an upsurge in volatility in the upcoming months. The pattern suggests a level of 35 for the India #Vix up over 50% from current levels. This implies significant downside for the Nifty in the upcoming months.
Incidentally the India Vix has traded below the US Vix recently and a catch up to the upside is likely as the India Vix tends to be significantly higher than the US Vix.

Rounding Bottom in India Vix Implies Downside Ahead http://t.co/Hj1JzDT8y4 pic.twitter.com/8TL5CvoTrT

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 6, 2015