Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 15

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	4280, 3.26%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	17698, 1.73%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3277, 1.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1818, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	91.88, 3.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.68, 3.83%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1477, - 5.32%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0261, 0.14%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	133.46, - 2.10%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	15146, 5.78%	Neutral	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	114.24, 0.86%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.57, 1.67%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10-year Bond Yield	2.84%, 0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
NYSE Summation Index	729, 56%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	19.53, - 7.66%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S & P 500	4071, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	3953, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	4329, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	16981, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	16339, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	16992, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	21.63	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.18	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.61, - 6.91%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	79.63, 0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	13	14
Bearish Indications	4	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are pushing resistance. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan –GDP, UK – Employment data,  CPI, Eurozone - CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.  We have likely hit resistance. The upcoming currency crisis should push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan, Euro, government bonds, and commodities are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2000-style recession trade has begun, with a decline in risk assets across the board. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels).

The S&P 500 is well below the 200 DMA, after spending a very long time above it, and its 200 DMA is declining. Monthly MACDs on most global markets are still negative. This spells trouble and opens up significant downside risk ahead.

We have got bounces without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime is changing from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets are breaking to the downside across the board. Downward earnings revisions are likely soon.

The Fed is aggressively tightening into a recession. Tail risk while moderating is still high.  Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has corrected significantly and more is left on the downside.

The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs despite the recent counter-trend move. The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in the recent melt-up in January, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here.  Technicals are tracking fundamentals and have recently turned bearish. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we have rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 2-year period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3500 area is emerging on the S and P, and 14000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. 

The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting a reality check and getting smashed by rising rates and a strong dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. Yield curves are about to invert yet again reflecting a major upcoming recession. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 4295 (up) and 4265 (down) on the S & P 500 and 17800 (up) and 17600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade despite the recent selloff. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Regret the errors in the last post, which I discovered late and have corrected. Love your thoughts and feedback.