About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 21 March 2021

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 22

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

3913, -0.77%

Bearish

Bearish

Nifty

14744, -1.91%

Neutral **

Bearish

China Shanghai Index

3405, -1.40%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

1744, 1.40%

Bullish

Bullish

WTIC Crude

61.46, -6.33%

Bearish

Bearish

Copper

4.10, -0.91%

Bearish

Bearish

Baltic Dry Index

2281, 16.38%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.1904, -0.40%

Neutral

Neutral

Dollar/Yen

108.88, -0.11%

Neutral

Neutral

Dow Transports

14182, 0.18%

Neutral

Neutral

High Yield (Bond ETF)

107.56, -0.42%

Neutral

Neutral

US 10 year Bond Yield

1.73%, 5.68%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

670, 5.82%

Bullish

Neutral

US Vix

20.95, 1.26%

Bearish

Bearish

Skew

142

Bearish

Bearish

20 DMA, S & P 500

3887, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

3862, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

3516, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

14902, Below

Neutral

Bearish

50 DMA, Nifty

14748, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

12496, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

39.84

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

40.16

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

19.99, -7.92%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

72.41, -0.37%

Neutral

Neutral

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

5

5

Bearish Indications

9

10

Outlook

Bearish

 Bearish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.

The markets are about to begin a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

UK - Employment data, CPI, US – GDP, China - PBOC rate decision

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


            The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Deflationary busts often begin with inflation scares (the market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and gold is telegraphing just that. Corporate bonds are flashing early warning signs. The epic crash signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up and break out of the long-term broadening top, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very near.  Technicals are about to track fundamentals and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 65% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) has dented global GDP significantly and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late as interest rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3925 (up) and 3900 (down) on the S & P 500 and 14800 (up) and 14650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Tuesday, 16 March 2021

Is the LQD Suggesting Trouble Ahead for the Broader Market?

The investment-grade corporate bond ETF LQD leads the broader market. Of late it has broken down completely exhibiting a death cross. This spells trouble for the broader market.

Is the LQD suggesting trouble ahead for the broader market by RajveerRawlin7a on TradingView.com

Sunday, 14 March 2021

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 15


Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

3943, 2.64%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

15031, 0.62%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

3453, -1.40%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

1726, 1.60%

Bullish

Bullish

WTIC Crude

65.57, -0.79%

Bearish

Bearish

Copper

4.15, 1.93%

Bullish

Bullish

Baltic Dry Index

1960, 7.16%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.1956, 0.33%

Neutral

Neutral

Dollar/Yen

109.05, 0.66%

Bullish

Bullish

Dow Transports

14157, 3.88%

Bullish

Bullish

High Yield (Bond ETF)

108.01, -0.18%

Neutral

Neutral

US 10 year Bond Yield

1.63%, 1.61%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

633, 14.33%

Bullish

Neutral

US Vix

20.69, -16.10%

Bullish

Bullish

Skew

140

Bearish

Bearish

20 DMA, S and P 500

3881, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S and P 500

3841, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S and P 500

3494, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

15015, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

14680, Above

Neutral

Bullish

200 DMA, Nifty

12374, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

40.15

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

40.94

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

21.71, -15.07%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

72.69, -0.67%

Neutral

Bullish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

11

13

Bearish Indications

5

5

Outlook

Bullish

 Bullish

Observation

The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

The markets are about to begin a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

Eurozone – CPI, UK - BOE rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, Japan - BOJ rate decision

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


            The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Deflationary busts often begin with inflation scares and gold is telegraphing just that. The epic crash signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up and break out of the long-term broadening top, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very near.  Technicals are about to track fundamentals and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 65% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) has dented global GDP significantly and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late as interest rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3955 (up) and 3930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 15100 (up) and 14950 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.