Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
3216, -0.28%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
11194,
2.68%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3197, -0.54%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1900, 4.96%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
41.34,
1.37%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.89, -0.45%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1388, -18.83%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1656,
2.00%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.14,
-0.81%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9730, -1.72%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (Bond ETF)
|
105.06,
1.32%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.59%,
-5.82%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
728, 8.50%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
25.84,
0.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
139
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3175, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
3104, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3041, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10773,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10177,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10859,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
27.64
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
29.35
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
24.53,
1.56%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
74.76,
-0.18%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
9
|
8
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
6
|
7
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly bullish for
the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
US - FOMC
rate decision, GDP, Eurozone - German
employment data, German GDP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The
S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are marginally bullish
for the coming week. The recent rally is on borrowed time as we head into one
of the worst earnings decline period
in stock market history with extremely
high valuations. We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse
and we have rallied 46% in our most recent rally of the lows, coincidence? After
extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging
on the S and P, and 9000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment
and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe.
SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050, scary? The markets
are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch
with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue
resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as
800 on the S and P. QE forever from
the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have
made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a
life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices
and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is
a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global
virus epidemic (black swan) is
likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from
bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under
performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in
key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of
bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high
off late as the yield curve inverts into
a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3225 (up) and 3200 (down) on the S
& P 500 and 11250
(up) and 11100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@TriggerTrades:
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
3225, 1.25%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10902,
1.24%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3214, -5.00%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1812, 0.57%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
40.75,
0.49%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Copper
|
2.90, 0.17%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1699, -6.13%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1431,
1.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.00,
0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
9900, 6.31%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (Bond ETF)
|
103.69,
1.53%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.62%,
-3.11%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
671, 1.77%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
25.68,
-5.90%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
141
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3137, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
3068, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3033, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10574,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9987, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10869,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
27.72
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
28.55
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
24.16,
-3.15%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
74.90,
-0.40%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
11
|
12
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
4
|
4
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
China - PBOC
rate decision
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are
bullish for the coming week. The recent rally is on borrowed time as we head
into one of the worst earnings decline
period in stock market history with extremely
high valuations. After extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the
2700 area is emerging on the S and P, and 9000 should arrive on the Nifty in short
order. The FED is repeating the
Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat
across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050,
scary? The markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued,
overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown
is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels
maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports,
other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown
in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P
500. The recent global virus epidemic (black
swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think.
The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for
significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks
and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over
stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 3240 (up) and 3210 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11000 (up) and 10800
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:
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Reduce Persistent Systems; target of Rs 3700: Emkay Global Financial
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[image: Reduce Persistent Systems; target of Rs 3700: Emkay Global
Financial] Emkay Global Financial recommended reduce rating on Persistent
Systems with a...
7 months ago
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Rupee falls 29 paise to close at 82.68 against US dollar
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During the day, the rupee touched a high of 82.45 and a low of 82.68
against the greenback. On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.39 against
the dollar.
1 year ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020
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Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions)
01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount
(Rs. Cror...
4 years ago
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Gold Top down analysis.
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- Updating blog after a long Gap. Longest in the last 8 years. May not
be able to update regularly for 2 more months to come.
- Gold bulls co...
6 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank
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We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the
old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48%
Kerala...
6 years ago
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Bank Nifty does Price Time Squaring and gave big move
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As discussed in Last Analysis Bank Nifty gave the big move as we were
expecting near turn date and also made low of 24706 near our target of
24700 and bo...
7 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again
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Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and
is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on
11th...
7 years ago
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Market outlook for 28/10/2016
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*Nifty closed flat at 8615.25* while Future closed at 8655.25, premium of
40.00 points.
*Bank Nifty closed up 31.00 points (0.16%) at 19514.60* while Futur...
8 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 27-10-2016
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Inference The index opened flat and went down to touch the lows at 8550,
but support level buying saw the index close flat at 8615.25. The broader
market w...
8 years ago
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NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22-8-16
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*Nifty (8667)* we said ‘it is quite possible that the Nifty may open again
in the green but I would be cautious in the upper regions’ the Nifty opened
in ...
8 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing
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ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings,
Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are
manufactur...
8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.